“Timing the future: Reality always moves slower than facts, and expectations are almost always ahead of reality!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Let’s talk about timing!
I felt compelled to put this thought together after several clients asked if I could include a look at the impact of cryptocurrency, NFT’s, Web 3.0, the metaverse, and a few of the more recently hyped trends in an upcoming talk. Our future is often ruled by the dominance of the Silicon Valley hype machine, and it’s in overdrive right now.
In that context, here’s what we know as to how things will unfold:
- there aren’t a lot of facts of real business models and opportunities unfolding with this right now
- but never mind – the expectations that people have for wild success far exceed reality as FOMO – the fear of missing out – kicks into overdrive
What I’ve come to realize, based on several recent client conversations, is that most people don’t need to be experts on these trends – what they really needed is some concrete, helpful insight to decipher all the hype that has now exploded around them. With that in mind, I wrote this keynote description yesterday. I expect to be kept pretty busy!
Check the opening line:
“Some people say that the next generation of technology promises to unleash a wave of innovation that parallels and exceeds the impact from the arrival of the Internet economy. Others say it’s more excessive hype built on accelerating FOMO – “Fear of Missing Out!” Making sense of reality is a challenge! That’s where Futurist Jim Carroll comes in!”
Here’s reality: in as little as ten years, the very concept of money might have been forever changed by crypto-currency and blockchain technology – and then again, it might not. And the fact is, the same might be true of all the trends that now dominate our new vocabulary – from the metaverse to NFT’s, Web3 to Bitcoin. What’s real, and what’s not? What’s a scam, and what’s the honest opportunity? (There’s a lot more of the former right now). Are we about to unleash a wave of innovation that parallels and exceeds the impact of the arrival of the Internet economy? Or are we simply being held hostage to the accelerated hype machine of Silicon Valley and venture capitalists, eager to cash in on the benefits of their hype machine?
Making sense of today’s reality is a challenge, and I have always said, timing is everything, particularly when it comes to the issue of getting involved in any particular trend.
In the era of acceleration, it becomes even more critical. You’d better make sure you are ready with any trend of importance and relevance because the future might happen before you know it. And yet understanding the future today is all the more challenging as the gap between the promise and reality of any new trend becomes even more challenging when faced with opinions that are all over the map. As Kevin Kelly, the founder of Wired noted, “the future happens slowly, and then, all at once.” Any particular trend can bubble along for a time, seemingly inconsequential and of little impact.
And then, all of a sudden, it can ‘go supernova’, explode in importance and significance – and suddenly, be everywhere!
But if you get too caught up in. the hype of the trend, particularly before it is real – you’ll end up getting burned!